After experiencing the driest June in over a decade, the city has now recorded a 35 percent rainfall deficit in July, resulting in the hottest day and night temperatures since 2011. The city’s struggle with insufficient rainfall has had a significant impact on both the climate and daily life.

Rainfall Deficit in Detail

In July, the city received only 178.2 mm of rainfall, a stark contrast to the normal rainfall of 273.2 mm for the month. This deficit follows an extremely dry June, where only 11.9 mm of rain was recorded, placing it in the “large deficient” category according to the Chandigarh Meteorological Department. Comparatively, the city saw 760.7 mm of rainfall in July 2023 and 463.1 mm in July 2022. Over the two months of the monsoon season, the total rainfall deficit stands at 50.9 percent.

Causes of Deficient Rainfall

Surender Paul, Director of the Chandigarh Meteorological Department, attributed the scanty rainfall to a weak monsoon current in the Bay of Bengal. “Weak current in the Bay of Bengal resulted in a deficient rainfall. Another reason for scanty rain is Western Disturbance, which was not frequent and weak too,” he explained. This weakened monsoon pattern has led to significantly less rainfall than expected, affecting both the environment and the local water supply.

Impact on Temperatures

The lack of rainfall has had a direct effect on temperatures in the city. The average maximum temperature for July was recorded at 35.8°C, the highest since 2011 when the department began maintaining detailed records. Similarly, the average minimum temperature was 28.2°C, also the highest since 2011. “There was little or no rainfall activity in July. A subdued monsoon caused dry weather, which led to hotter conditions,” said Paul.

Inaccurate Rain Forecasts

Adding to the woes, most of the rain predictions by the Weather Department in July turned out to be inaccurate. Despite forecasting rain for almost all days of the month, actual rain activity was minimal. Paul admitted, “Weather models were overestimated. We were scientifically getting signals about rain activity through our computing system, but it did not happen on the ground. Also, models generally do not stimulate small-scale climate indications and wind system.”

Future Rain Predictions

The Meteorological Department has now released a rain forecast for the next four days, hoping for some respite from the ongoing dry spell. However, given the recent inaccuracies in predictions, there is a cautious optimism among residents and officials alike.

Consequences and Measures

The prolonged dry spell and high temperatures have several adverse effects. Agricultural activities are severely hampered, leading to potential crop failures and financial losses for farmers. The urban population also faces challenges, including water shortages and increased energy consumption due to higher use of air conditioning and cooling systems.

To mitigate these issues, the city administration is urging residents to conserve water and use it judiciously. Efforts are also being made to improve the accuracy of weather forecasting models to better predict and prepare for such climatic anomalies in the future.

Conclusion

The city’s significant rainfall deficit and record-high temperatures are a cause for concern, highlighting the need for effective climate adaptation strategies. While the Meteorological Department continues to monitor the situation, the community must come together to address and mitigate the impacts of these climatic changes.