As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, the political landscape is fraught with speculation about the potential candidacy of Vice President Kamala Harris. With President Joe Biden facing growing pressure to step aside, Harris is seen by many top Democrats as his natural successor. This sentiment is gaining traction among party donors, activists, and officials, who are now questioning whether Harris might have a better chance than Biden of defeating Donald Trump in a head-to-head contest.
Kamala Harris, 59, has a notable political resume as a former U.S. senator and California attorney general. If she were to become the Democratic nominee and win the election on November 5, 2024, she would make history as the first woman to become president of the United States, as well as the first African American and Asian American person to hold the office.
Harris’s tenure as vice president, however, has been marked by challenges. Early in her role, she faced criticism for her handling of key policy areas such as migration from Central America, which did not yield significant successes. This, coupled with staff turnover and a perceived lackluster start, led to concerns within the White House and the Biden campaign team about her viability as a candidate.
Despite these early hurdles, the situation has shifted significantly in recent months. Democratic officials have observed that Harris has stepped up on crucial issues like abortion rights and has made concerted efforts to engage with young voters. This strategic pivot has improved her standing within the party and among voters.
Recent polling data provides a mixed but cautiously optimistic picture for Harris. A CNN poll released on July 2 indicated that while Trump leads Biden by six percentage points (49% to 43%), Harris trails Trump by a narrower margin (47% to 45%), which falls within the margin of error. Notably, Harris has stronger support among independents (43% to 40%) and moderate voters (51% to 39%) compared to Trump.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted after a recent televised debate between Trump and Biden found Harris and Trump nearly tied, with Harris receiving 42% support compared to Trump’s 43%. Additionally, internal polling shared by the Biden campaign shows Harris with similar odds to Biden in a matchup against Trump, with 45% of voters favoring her versus 48% for Trump.
Influential Democrats have started to voice their support for Harris as a potential candidate. Figures such as U.S. Representative Jim Clyburn, who was instrumental in Biden’s 2020 victory, New York Congressman Gregory Meeks, a senior member of the Congressional Black Caucus, and Pennsylvania House Democrat Summer Lee have indicated that Harris would be a strong choice to lead the ticket if Biden steps aside. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has also reportedly expressed similar sentiments to lawmakers in private.
Harris’s potential candidacy is being taken seriously even among Republican donors, some of whom prefer Trump to face Biden rather than Harris. Pauline Lee, a Trump fundraiser in Nevada, stated after the June 27 debate that she would prefer Biden to remain the Democratic candidate, describing him as “incompetent.” On Wall Street, an essential center for Democratic fundraising, there are signs of shifting preferences. Sonu Varghese, a global macro strategist at Carson Group, remarked that Harris might improve the Democrats’ odds of winning the White House, suggesting that she has more potential upside compared to Biden at this point.
Despite these developments, Harris faces significant challenges. Public perception remains a hurdle, with polling outlet Five Thirty Eight indicating that 37.1% of voters approve of Harris while 49.6% disapprove. These figures are slightly better than Biden’s, who has an approval rating of 36.9% and a disapproval rating of 57.1%. Trump’s ratings are also negative, with 38.6% approval and 53.6% disapproval.
As the 2024 election draws nearer, the Democratic Party must carefully weigh its options. With Biden insisting on staying in the race, the decision to potentially pivot to Harris carries both risks and opportunities. Her ability to connect with key voter demographics and her recent proactive stance on critical issues could bolster her candidacy, but overcoming entrenched public skepticism will be a significant challenge. The coming months will be crucial in determining whether Kamala Harris can emerge as a unifying and formidable conten
