Recent polls from The New York Times and Siena College have made it clear that Vice President Kamala Harris has significantly impacted the current presidential election. In the latest swing state polls following her entry into the race, Harris is leading former President Donald Trump by four points in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin among likely voters. This marks a major shift from earlier Times/Siena polls, where Trump was leading Harris and President Joe Biden by a slight margin in these states.
Poll shifts can sometimes be hard to explain, especially in today’s polarized political climate. However, Harris’ entry into the race has clearly altered the election dynamics. Previously, Biden’s unpopularity hindered the usual Democratic strategy of making the election a referendum on Trump. Many voters were left choosing between two candidates they were not enthusiastic about.
Now, with Harris gaining momentum at the top of the ticket, the usual Trump-era political dynamic seems to be reasserting itself. According to the poll, at least 49% of likely voters in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin have a favorable view of Harris, a figure neither Harris nor Biden had reached in previous Times/Siena polls.
Interestingly, Trump’s favorability rating has also seen a slight increase, reaching 46% across the three states—the highest ever recorded in Times/Siena polling. This might have been enough for him to lead against Biden, whose ratings had dropped into the 30s, but it currently falls short against the surging Harris.
Harris’s current position can be likened to that of a “generic” Democrat—a candidate without specific baggage or controversy, which often fares better in polls. In October, an unnamed Democrat led Trump by about 10 points, even though Trump led Biden and Harris by one point each. Initially, there was skepticism that any real-world Democrat, including Harris, could match the hypothetical “generic” candidate’s appeal due to her previous unfavorable ratings and political baggage.
However, the latest poll results show that Harris now polls more like that idealized Democratic nominee. A majority of voters see her as honest, intelligent, and capable of bringing the right kind of change, with the temperament to be president. Additionally, she isn’t perceived as being too far to the left, with only 44% of likely voters considering her too liberal.
Whether Harris can maintain this support is uncertain. Although she currently benefits from positive media coverage, endorsements, and goodwill from voters seeking an alternative to the older candidates, this honeymoon phase may not last. The true test will come as Harris faces more scrutiny and attacks.
The poll doesn’t predict whether her support will endure, but the recent dramatic shift in public opinion suggests that views on Harris may not be deeply entrenched. Just as Trump’s earlier lead over Harris may have been based on uncertain perceptions, Harris’s current lead might also be on shaky ground.