The southwest monsoon, which had stalled after reaching Mumbai on June 9, two days ahead of its usual date, is expected to regain momentum in the coming days, according to private weather forecaster Skymet. “Weather conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for the monsoon to advance across several key regions,” Skymet reported. “Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and parts of Uttar Pradesh can expect the arrival of the monsoon within the next two days.”
This development is crucial for the kharif crop season, as planting depends on the first showers of the southwest monsoon. The agriculture ministry has not yet released data on the area sown under various crops due to the slow progress of the monsoon, despite its arrival in Kerala on May 31, a day ahead of schedule and five days earlier than normal in northeast India.
The southwest monsoon delivers nearly 70% of the rainfall India needs for its agriculture and to replenish reservoirs and aquifers. The timely arrival of the monsoon is vital for India’s agricultural sector, as around 56% of the net cultivated area and 44% of food production depend on monsoon rainfall. Adequate precipitation is essential for robust crop production, maintaining stable food prices, especially for vegetables, and supporting economic growth. Agriculture contributes about 14% to India’s gross domestic product, highlighting the importance of a good monsoon.
As of June 24, the national rainfall deficit was 18%, with regional variations. East and northeast India were 16% deficient, while northwest India faced a significant 56% deficit. Central India had a 22% shortfall, whereas the southern Peninsula experienced a 10% surplus. “The coming days, however, bring hope for a significant improvement,” Skymet noted.
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday, the southwest monsoon has advanced into parts of the north Arabian Sea, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, southwest Rajasthan, and southern West Uttar Pradesh. Recent IMD data shows a trend of slow monsoon rainfall in June, followed by prolonged, heavy rainfall in September. This shift is also marked by rising temperatures during monsoon months and an increase in dry days over eastern India.
Regarding the heatwave, the IMD indicated no significant change in maximum temperatures in northwest and central India over the next two days, with a subsequent drop of 2-4°C. Maximum temperatures are expected to remain largely unchanged in other regions.
