In the recent Lok Sabha elections, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) managed to secure a decisive 292 out of 543 seats, surpassing the majority mark by 20. However, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the leading party within the alliance, fell short of achieving a majority on its own, capturing only 240 seats. This result marks a significant departure from its stellar performances in the 2014 and 2019 elections.

An analysis of the final vote tally reveals that an additional 609,639 votes across 32 closely contested seats could have pushed the BJP over the majority threshold. For instance, in Chandigarh, the BJP lost by a razor-thin margin of 2,504 votes, while in Hamirpur, Uttar Pradesh, the gap was a mere 2,629 votes. Other narrow defeats included Salempur, Uttar Pradesh (3,573 votes), Dhule, Maharashtra (3,831 votes), and Dhaurahra, Uttar Pradesh (4,449 votes). Margins, though higher, were still slim in South Goa (13,535 votes), Thirupathi, Andhra Pradesh (14,569 votes), and Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala (16,077 votes). The highest margins among these narrow losses were in Fatehpur, Uttar Pradesh (33,199 votes), and Kheri, Uttar Pradesh (34,329 votes).

In future elections, the BJP will need to focus on converting these narrow defeats into victories to regain a stronger foothold. The party’s performance showed a 21 percent drop in its seat share, while Congress registered an impressive 90 percent increase. The BJP contested 441 seats this time, whereas Congress fielded candidates in 328.

Further analysis indicates that of the 168 seats where the BJP fielded incumbent MPs, the party won 111, which is 66 percent of those seats. Conversely, in the 132 seats where sitting MPs were dropped, the party emerged victorious in 95, achieving a 72 percent success rate. This suggests that the party was able to mitigate anti-incumbency sentiments by replacing candidates in certain constituencies.

Despite the overall victory of the NDA, the BJP’s shortfall from the majority mark in Parliament suggests a continued dependence on allies like Nitish Kumar and Chandrababu Naidu, whose support may prove to be unpredictable.