By 2100, India’s population is projected to reach around 1.5 billion, more than twice that of China’s estimated 633 million, highlighting the substantial demographic dividend available to the country. According to estimates released by the United Nations on Thursday, India will hit a critical point in 2085 when its population of 1.61 billion will be double that of China’s 806 million. This gap is expected to widen in subsequent years.
Following India and China in the population rankings by 2100 will be Pakistan with 511 million, Nigeria with 477 million, the Democratic Republic of the Congo with 431 million, and the United States with 421 million. The U.S. is one of 62 countries where immigration is projected to be the major driver of population growth, rather than an excess of births over deaths or an increase in life expectancy, as per the biennial World Population Prospects (WPP) report released by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA) Population Division. The current population of the U.S. is 345 million.
India’s current population stands at 1.451 billion, nine million more than the previous estimate from two years ago. Despite being projections, these estimates are considered authoritative due to the absence of a decadal census since 2011. The 2021 census was postponed indefinitely, initially due to the pandemic and subsequently for undisclosed reasons.
Contrary to alarmist claims, the slight upward revision in India’s population is not indicative of an imminent population explosion. Although India is expected to remain the most populous country throughout the century, the WPP projections do not suggest any major deviation from India’s overall demographic transition trajectory.
India’s population is expected to reach approximately 1.692 billion by 2054, peaking at 1.701 billion in 2061. Meanwhile, China, an aging nation, is set to lose about half of its population over the next 75 years. Currently, the median age of India’s population is 28.4 years, compared to China’s 39.6 years and the U.S.’s 38.3 years. By 2100, these figures are projected to be 47.8 years for India, 60.7 years for China, and 45.3 years for the U.S.
The WPP report highlights that India’s key demographic challenge is not preventing population growth, which stems from past momentum, but effectively utilizing the limited window for exploiting its demographic dividend. India’s working-age population is projected to peak by 2049, 12 years before the overall population peaks, reaching 1,027 million at its peak. The report emphasizes the need for investment in education, health, and infrastructure, as well as reforms to create jobs and improve government efficiency to capitalize on this opportunity.
India’s declining fertility rate, which fell below the replacement level of 2.1 in 2020 and was 1.962 in 2024, is a significant factor in the population dynamics. Future population growth is largely a result of the momentum of past growth, with a large number of people in the reproductive age group contributing to the population increase despite lower fertility rates.
The latest WPP report has made a slight upward revision to its 2022 forecast of the world population, from 8.1 billion to 8.2 billion. The global population is now expected to peak at 10.29 billion in 2084, instead of the previously estimated 10.43 billion in 2086. By 2100, the global population is projected to be 10.2 billion, slightly lower than the earlier estimate of 10.3 billion.
These projections reflect significant long-term changes, with an 80% probability that the world population will peak within the current century, compared to a 30% probability estimated a decade ago. The earlier peak in the global population size is attributed to lower-than-expected fertility levels in some of the world’s largest countries, particularly China.
The population of China and 62 other countries, accounting for 28% of the global population in 2024, has already peaked. In another 48 countries, accounting for 10% of the world population, the population is expected to peak between 2025 and 2054. For the remaining 126 countries, including India, the population is likely to peak beyond 2054 or even by 2100.
Various factors drive population growth or decline across countries. While the global fertility rate in 2024 is 2.25 births per woman, it is below the replacement level in more than half of all countries. Nearly one-fifth of all countries have fertility rates below 1.4, indicating shrinking populations. In countries with low fertility, policies aimed at raising fertility are expected to have diminishing effects over time as the share of women in the reproductive age group declines.
Immigration is anticipated to be a major driver of population growth in 62 countries through 2100, already influencing the population peaks in many of them.
Life expectancy, which was disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, has returned to pre-pandemic levels in nearly all countries. Global life expectancy at birth, which decreased from 72.6 years in 2019 to 70.9 years in 2020 and 2021, has improved to 73.3 years in 2024 and is projected to increase to 77.4 years by 2054. However, improving life expectancy is unlikely to prevent population decline due to falling fertility rates.
By 2054, more than half of global deaths are expected to occur at age 80 or higher, compared to 17% in 1995. Although the number of deaths among children under five fell below 5 million for the first time in 2023, high levels of child mortality persist in many regions, including the Democratic Republic of the Congo, India, Nigeria, and Pakistan. These deaths, largely preventable, continue to occur in countries with growing populations.
The WPP report underscores the need for targeted policies and investments to address the diverse demographic challenges and opportunities faced by countries worldwide.
