New Delhi: On Saturday, the BJP’s strength in the Rajya Sabha decreased by four seats following the retirement of four nominated members: Rakesh Sinha, Ram Shakal, Sonal Mansingh, and Mahesh Jethmalani. These members, initially chosen as non-aligned by President Droupadi Murmu on the ruling party’s advice, formally allied with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government post-appointment.
Impact on BJP’s and NDA’s Position
Their retirement reduced the BJP’s strength in the 245-member Rajya Sabha to 86 seats. Consequently, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the BJP, now holds 101 seats, falling short of the current majority mark of 113. Despite this, the NDA retains support from the remaining seven nominated MPs and an independent member, in a House where the current strength is 225.
Opposition and Independent Parties
The Congress-led INDIA bloc now holds 87 seats, with the Congress itself possessing 26 seats. Bengal’s ruling Trinamool Congress has 13 seats, while the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) each control 10 seats. Parties not aligned with either the BJP or Congress, including Telangana’s Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) and various independent and nominated MPs, hold the remaining seats.
Strategic Alliances and Support
Given the reduced numbers, the BJP is now dependent on non-NDA parties for passing legislation in the Rajya Sabha. Key allies include the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) from Tamil Nadu and the Yuvajana Sramika Rythu Congress Party (YSRCP) from Andhra Pradesh, led by former Chief Minister Jagan Mohan Reddy. This reliance will continue until the BJP can fill the four nominated seats and the elections for 11 vacant seats, scheduled for this year, are completed. The BJP is expected to secure at least eight of these 11 seats.
Voting Requirements for Legislation
Currently, the BJP needs an additional 15 votes from NDA parties and 12 more from other sources to pass bills. The support of the remaining seven nominated MPs, along with an independent member, brings the total to 12, leaving the BJP just four votes short of the 113-seat majority.
Potential Support from YSRCP and BJD
Jagan Reddy’s YSRCP, which has 11 Rajya Sabha seats, has historically provided issue-based support to the BJP, making their votes crucial for the ruling party. On the other hand, the Biju Janata Dal (BJD), led by former Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik, has nine Rajya Sabha seats. Despite their previous support, the BJD has recently announced its intention to no longer support the BJP following a defeat in the state elections in May-June.
Current Vacant Seats in Rajya Sabha
As of now, there are 20 vacant seats in the Rajya Sabha, including 11 elected seats for which polls are expected this year. The distribution of these seats is as follows:
- Maharashtra: 2 seats
- Assam: 2 seats
- Bihar: 2 seats
- Haryana: 1 seat
- Rajasthan: 1 seat
- Madhya Pradesh: 1 seat
- Telangana: 1 seat
- Tripura: 1 seat
The reduction in the BJP’s Rajya Sabha strength highlights the delicate balance of power in the upper house of Parliament. With crucial legislation pending, the BJP must strategically navigate alliances and support from other parties to ensure the passage of bills. The upcoming elections for the vacant seats will be pivotal in determining the future legislative landscape.
