The Azerbaijan Airlines plane that crashed near Aqtau in Kazakhstan on Christmas Day, while en route from Baku to Grozny, Russia, may have been “accidentally struck” by a Russian surface-to-air missile or anti-aircraft fire, according to military experts cited in multiple reports.
The tragic incident resulted in the deaths of 38 of the 67 people on board, including 62 passengers and five crew members. Among the 29 survivors were two young girls, aged 11 and 16.
An investigation is currently underway, but aviation experts from international media outlets, such as the Wall Street Journal, Euronews, and AFP, have pointed to visible holes in the plane’s fuselage and damage to the tail section, which appear consistent with shrapnel damage from a missile strike. A video posted on X by Clash Report, a platform covering military conflicts, showed large holes in the fuselage, some several inches wide, which further raised suspicions of missile or anti-aircraft fire.
Additionally, the plane was flying through an area where Ukrainian drone activity had been reported, and Grozny, the capital of Chechnya, which was a key target for Ukraine as the war with Russia entered its third year, is known to be heavily defended by anti-aircraft weaponry.
A Russian military blogger, Yury Podolyaka, told AFP that the damage to the plane’s fuselage, as seen in photos of the wreckage, resembled that caused by an anti-aircraft missile system. Podolyaka suggested that the plane may have been “accidentally struck by an air-defense missile system.”
Matt Borie, Chief Intelligence Officer at aviation risk management firm Osprey Flight Solutions, also commented, stating that the wreckage and the security conditions in southwest Russia indicated the plane had been hit by some form of anti-aircraft fire.
This incident has raised serious concerns about airspace safety, particularly in regions where military conflict is ongoing. The investigation continues as authorities work to determine the exact cause of the crash and whether it was indeed a case of accidental missile strike.
