After two consecutive terms of dominance by the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), the political tides in Delhi seem to be shifting. According to a majority of exit polls released on Wednesday, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which had been relegated to single-digit seat numbers in the past two Delhi Assembly elections, is poised to reclaim power in the national capital after a 27-year hiatus. If these predictions hold, it would mark a significant blow for Arvind Kejriwal, who resigned as Chief Minister last year amidst corruption allegations, and for the AAP, which had been riding high on the back of consecutive near-sweeps in the 2015 and 2020 elections.
The Congress party, once a dominant force under Sheila Dikshit, continues to flounder in Delhi, with exit polls indicating it might only win one or two seats, a far cry from its former glory. In contrast, the BJP is forecast to secure 39 seats, comfortably surpassing the halfway mark of 36 seats in the 70-member Delhi Assembly. The AAP, dealing with a decade of anti-incumbency, is expected to be reduced to around 30 seats, marking a dramatic reversal of fortunes.
However, as history has shown, exit polls are not always accurate, and their forecasts should be taken with caution. Among the exit polls, only Mind Brink and WeePreside predict a victory for AAP, with Mind Brink projecting the party to secure between 44 and 49 seats, while WeePreside is slightly more optimistic, forecasting 46 to 52 seats for AAP. On the other hand, Matrize forecasts a tighter contest, predicting a range of 35 to 40 seats for the BJP and 32 to 37 seats for the AAP. Most of the exit polls, however, lean in favor of the BJP, with some, like People’s Pulse, suggesting a decisive victory with 51-60 seats for the BJP and just 10-19 for AAP.
As the results from the exit polls began to trickle in, BJP’s Delhi unit chief, Virendra Sachdeva, seized the moment to celebrate, echoing Prime Minister Modi’s coined term, “AAP-da (disaster) is leaving,” in reference to the expected downfall of the AAP government. However, the AAP has maintained an optimistic stance, with leader Reena Gupta asserting that the party would “register a historic victory” and that Kejriwal would secure a fourth term as Chief Minister. Gupta was quick to point out that historically, exit polls have always underestimated AAP’s seat tally, citing the surprise victories in 2013, 2015, and 2020.
This optimism is not without merit. In both 2015 and 2020, exit polls had predicted a much closer race, only to see AAP secure massive wins with 67 and 62 seats, respectively. Nevertheless, this time the mood seems different, with the AAP facing several headwinds. Exit polls suggest that Congress has managed to chip away at AAP’s support base, particularly among Muslims and Dalits, creating space for BJP’s rise. If these projections are accurate, it indicates that the BJP has successfully expanded its base in areas that were once AAP strongholds, like jhuggi clusters and unauthorized colonies.
The BJP’s aggressive campaign, which included vociferous attacks on AAP over the alleged liquor policy scam and the “Sheesh Mahal” controversy, seems to have struck a chord with voters. The latter controversy centers around allegations that Kejriwal spent exorbitant amounts renovating his official residence during the COVID-19 pandemic, an issue that has attracted significant public ire. In addition, the BJP’s strategy has been boosted by the recent Budget, which delivered substantial income tax cuts for the salaried middle class—an important constituency for the saffron party.
Should the BJP secure a victory in Delhi, it would send ripples across the political landscape, particularly in Bihar, which is gearing up for elections later this year. The Purvanchali vote, which refers to people from eastern Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, makes up a third of Delhi’s electorate. If the BJP is able to make inroads with this demographic, it could signal a shift in voter sentiment that could carry over to Bihar, a state that has long been a stronghold for regional parties.
As the political drama in Delhi unfolds, the ultimate verdict will come on February 8, when the votes are counted. If the exit polls are to be believed, Delhi is on the brink of a major political shift, but as always, in Indian politics, nothing is certain until the final results are in.
