Renowned political historian Professor Allan Lichtman, famously dubbed the “Nostradamus of US elections,” faced a surprising miscalculation in his 2024 presidential election prediction. Lichtman, who has accurately forecasted nine of the past ten US elections since 1984, had anticipated a win for Democratic candidate and Vice President Kamala Harris. However, his prediction proved incorrect as Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump surpassed the critical 270-electoral vote threshold to secure his return to the White House as the 47th President of the United States.
During a live broadcast on his YouTube channel with his son, Sam, Lichtman expressed shock and disbelief as results unfolded. Notably, Pennsylvania, a key battleground state, swung unexpectedly toward Trump. “I don’t get it why they think Trump’s going to win Pennsylvania,” Lichtman said, repeatedly voicing his inability to comprehend the trend.
Sam, attempting to reassure his father, observed that Pennsylvania initially looked positive for Harris. However, as Trump gained a commanding lead, both father and son became increasingly disheartened, with Sam admitting, “This is the first moment of the night where I’ve lost hope a little bit.”
Visibly tired after a lengthy six-hour live stream, Lichtman remarked, “Good thing I have nothing to do tomorrow,” suggesting he intended to take a break from interviews and public appearances. He expressed deep concerns about the implications of Trump’s victory, remarking on the state of American democracy. “The democracy is gone. Once it is gone, it is almost impossible to recover,” he warned, adding that recovering democracy often only follows tumultuous events like wars.
In a subsequent video statement on Instagram, Lichtman acknowledged his miscalculation and accepted responsibility, stating, “My prediction for this presidential election was wrong. I own up to it.” He added that he plans to evaluate why his predictive model, “the keys,” failed in this instance and what broader lessons might be gleaned from the election outcome for the future of American democracy.
